Everything changes for the Group of 5 this year as the American moves from automatic qualifier to a Group of 5 conference. The highest-ranked Group of 5 team earns a big bowl. Top playoff contenders are Marshall, Boise St, UCF, Houston, and Cincinnati; Marshall's easy schedule gives it the best shot at running the table.
Conference Picks (Win Share, overall)
- American: Houston 5.92 (9.01), Cincinnati 5.86 (8.11), UCF 5.29 (7.31). Houston wins a tiebreaker; all three miss the big bowls.
- Mountain West: Boise St 6.45 (8.98), Utah St 5.09 (7.61), Fresno St 4.90 (6.39), San Diego St 4.51 (6.53). Boise over Fresno in the title game.
- Conference USA: Marshall 5.85 (9.42), MTSU 5.26 (7.40), Rice 5.36 (6.97), UTSA 5.23 (6.71), North Texas 4.87 (6.66). Marshall over Rice.
- Mid-American: Northern Illinois 6.30 (8.40), Bowling Green 6.02 (8.37), Buffalo 5.10 (7.55), Toledo 5.09 (6.82). NIU over Bowling Green.
- Sun Belt: Louisiana 5.55 (7.28), South Alabama 5.21 (6.31). Louisiana wins the conference.
- Independents: Notre Dame 7.21, BYU 8.48, Navy 7.76. All make bowls but none contend for the playoff.
Marshall has the best chance to crash the contract bowl by going undefeated.