Looking at who has made the playoffs in each of the four years, a few patterns emerge.
- Win-Share: 14 of 16 playoff teams had a Win-Share of 8.25+; all had 7.0 (6.99) or higher.
- SF Rating: 15 of 16 had a rating of 4.40+; all had 4.1 or higher.
- Prior F/+: 15 of 16 finished 19th or higher in the previous season's final F/+ ratings; all finished 54th or higher.
- Prior wins: 14 of 16 had 10+ wins the previous season; all had 7 or more.
There has never been more than one outlier team in a given year. Three of the four playoff teams will most likely meet all criteria.
Tier 1 (meet all four higher criteria)
Clemson, Penn St, Ohio St, Wisconsin, Oklahoma, Washington, USC, Alabama, Auburn, Georgia.
Tier 2 (meet at least one higher criterion plus all outlier criteria)
FSU, Miami, Michigan, Stanford, Michigan St, Oklahoma St, LSU, Miss St, UCF, Notre Dame, Texas, Oregon.
Close to 100% chance that three of the four playoff teams and the national champion come from Tier 1, and that both championship-game teams come from these 22. About a 50% chance one playoff team comes from Tier 2.
Games with big playoff implications
Washington v Auburn (Wk 1), Michigan @ Notre Dame (Wk 1), Miami v LSU (Wk 1), Ohio St @ Penn St (Wk 5), Stanford @ Notre Dame (Wk 5), Texas v Oklahoma (Wk 6), FSU @ Miami (Wk 6), Auburn @ Miss St (Wk 6), Washington @ Oregon (Wk 7), Georgia @ LSU (Wk 7), Michigan St @ Penn St (Wk 7), Wisconsin @ Michigan (Wk 7), Michigan @ Michigan St (Wk 8), Clemson @ FSU (Wk 9), Texas @ Oklahoma St (Wk 9), Stanford @ Washington (Wk 10), Penn St @ Michigan (Wk 10), Alabama @ LSU (Wk 10), Wisconsin @ Penn St (Wk 11), Auburn @ Georgia (Wk 11), Ohio St @ Michigan St (Wk 11), Oklahoma St @ Oklahoma (Wk 11), FSU @ Notre Dame (Wk 11), Notre Dame @ USC (Wk 13), Michigan @ Ohio St (Wk 13), Auburn @ Alabama (Wk 13).